Month: June 2025

Excerpt:
The hypothetical U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, while potentially delaying Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, risks triggering severe regional escalation and fracturing the international order. Global reactions are expected to divide the UN Security Council, mobilize Iran’s regional proxies, and alienate European allies invested in diplomacy. The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz means energy markets could face disruption akin to the 1973 oil crisis, benefiting adversaries like Russia. Contrary to hopes for regime change, the Iranian regime’s economic control and nationalist sentiment likely will strengthen its domestic position. Furthermore, the attack could accelerate nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia and Turkey openly considering their own programs. Finally, Iran’s cyber capabilities pose unpredictable threats to critical infrastructure worldwide, underscoring the complex consequences of preemptive military action.